Monthly Archives: May 2016

PIPPA MALMGREN: China thinks the US will default via inflation – Business Insider

https://apple.news/AC7BlNXrNSJep–jk8lZLGA

Can fed raise rates with flat 2s 10s?

The story is of low global growth and even lower inflation. With that backdrop, there should be an ever-present long-duration buyer to anchor in returns and therefore forcing its effects on shorter duration paper (thus explaining the current flattening in 2-10s). 

Today’s wsj also talks of real inflation being closer to zero because of inconsistencies in CPI that don’t take into account changing consumer baskets and quality of improvement. 

Thus the fed can’t raise until inflation “normalizes” to the 2% level. Even if it does buck the trend, the legions of bidders are quickly going to bring the effective rate of interest back to low levels. If global growth stories are intertwined as also the market for financial instruments, how can the fed operate from a domestic vacuum?